7.12 - Urban Growth Projections
Historical and projected trends in global urban population growth
The world's urban population has seen a dramatic increase over the past century, reflecting a shift towards city living. In 1950, just 30% of the global population resided in urban areas. This figure rose to 54% by 2014 and is projected to reach 66% by 2050. This growth translates to an additional 2.5 billion people living in urban environments by mid-century, highlighting the rapid pace of urbanisation worldwide.
Key statistics on urban population growth
- 1950 - 30% of the world's population lived in urban areas.
- 2014 - This increased to 54%, showing a significant shift over six decades.
- 2050 projection - Expected to climb to 66%, indicating continued urban expansion.
- Regional leader - North America currently stands as the most urbanised region, with 82% of its population in urban areas.
Regional distribution of urban populations by continent
Urban populations are not evenly distributed across the globe, with certain continents housing a larger share of city dwellers. Asia dominates in terms of sheer numbers, and its influence is expected to grow further. Meanwhile, other regions show varying trends in their proportional contributions to the global urban population.
Distribution trends by continent
- Asia's dominance - Hosts the largest number of urban residents globally and is projected to see continued growth in its share.
- Africa's rise - Expected to experience a significant increase in its proportion of the world's urban population over the coming decades.
- Europe's decline - While still significant, Europe's share of the global urban population is forecasted to decrease over time.
- Other regions - Areas like Oceania, Northern America, and Latin America and the Caribbean maintain relatively small and stable shares of the global urban population.
Growth patterns across different city sizes
Urban growth is occurring across cities of all sizes, from small urban areas to sprawling megacities. The distribution of populations within these categories provides insight into how urbanisation is shaping different types of settlements, with larger cities showing slightly faster growth rates.
Population distribution by city size
| City size category | 1990 (number of cities) | 2014 (number of cities) | 2030 projection (number of cities) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Megacities (10 million or more) | 10 | 28 | 41 |
| Large cities (5 to 10 million) | 21 | 43 | 63 |
| Medium-sized cities (1 to 5 million) | 239 | 417 | 558 |
| Cities (500,000 to 1 million) | 294 | 525 | 731 |
Current population spread
- Small urban areas - Nearly 50% of the world's urban population resides in cities with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants.
- Megacities - Approximately 12% live in megacities, defined as urban areas with populations of 10 million or more.
- Growth rates - Megacities and large cities are expanding at a slightly faster pace compared to medium-sized and smaller urban areas.
- Declining cities - Some cities in low-fertility countries, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, are experiencing population decline despite the global trend of growth.
Key countries driving urban expansion by 2050
Certain nations are expected to play a pivotal role in the global surge of urban populations by 2050. Their rapid growth will significantly contribute to the overall increase in city dwellers worldwide.
India, China, and Nigeria are projected to account for over 33% of the global urban population growth by 2050. These countries, with their large populations and accelerating urbanisation rates, will shape the future landscape of urban development, particularly in Asia and Africa.