9.4 - Oil: Trends, Trade & Tensions
The importance of oil as a key energy source
Oil is a critical component of the global energy landscape, serving as one of the primary sources of fuel worldwide. Its high demand stems from its widespread use in various sectors, particularly in transportation and industry.
Why oil is vital to global energy needs
- High global demand - Oil is constantly in demand across the world.
- Primary fuel source - Around 65% of all oil is used to fuel vehicles.
Distribution and factors affecting oil reserves and production
Oil reserves refer to the amount of recoverable oil that can be extracted using current technology, while oil production involves the extraction and refining of crude oil.
Global distribution of oil reserves
The world's major oil reserves are found in a handful of countries, with most of these in the Middle East.
Factors influencing oil production
- Infrastructure requirements - A country needs the right equipment and technology.
- Domestic energy needs - Some oil-producing nations use significant portions of their production to meet internal energy needs.
- Declining reserves - Production from some major oceanic oil fields has been declining as reserves are used up.
Trends in global oil consumption
Global oil consumption is on an upward trajectory, driven by economic development and population growth.
Drivers of increasing oil consumption
- Economic development - As GDP per capita increases, so does oil consumption.
- Energy-intensive lifestyles - People in wealthier countries have more energy-intensive goods, such as personal vehicles.
- Industrial growth - Rapid industrialization in emerging economies increases oil consumption.
- Population and urban expansion - The combination of growing population, industrial expansion, and urban development leads to higher consumption of oil.
Between 2015 and 2016, worldwide oil consumption grew by approximately 1.4 million barrels per day.
Factors influencing oil supply and pricing
The supply of oil and its market price are closely interconnected, with fluctuations driven by a range of economic, political, and regional factors.
Key influences on oil supply and pricing
- Oversupply and undersupply dynamics - Generally, periods of oversupply cause oil prices to fall; periods of undersupply cause prices to increase.
- Regional conflicts - Regional conflicts in oil-producing regions can disrupt oil production, leading to a decrease in oil supply and shortages that cause prices to increase.
- Diplomatic tensions - Oil prices may increase because of tensions between oil-producing countries. Regional rivalries between major petroleum exporters have led to uncertainty about oil production.
- Economic conditions - Economic recessions lower the demand for oil because industrial activities and economic growth slow down. During periods of rapid economic growth, oil prices increase because of increased consumption and demand.
Future concerns regarding oil reserves
The long-term sustainability of oil as an energy source is a growing concern due to finite reserves and rising consumption rates.
Challenges surrounding oil reserve depletion
- Uncertainty over reserves - Scientists are uncertain when oil reserves will run out.
- Need for new discoveries - Continued consumption at current rates will necessitate finding new reserves.