3.2 - Cash Flow Forecasting
The importance of cash and reasons businesses need it
Cash represents the most readily available form of asset in a business, consisting of notes, coins held on site, and funds in bank accounts. Maintaining adequate cash levels is essential, as inadequate cash flow ranks among the leading causes of business collapse. Without enough cash, companies cannot settle immediate obligations, which may force them to cease operations.
Reasons businesses need cash
Businesses require cash for several critical day-to-day functions:
- Payments to suppliers - To acquire materials and components; many transactions use trade credit, but delayed payments can lead suppliers to halt future supplies.
- Covering overheads - Regular expenses like rent, electricity bills, insurance premiums, and telephone charges must be met, or services could be disconnected.
- Employee wages - Staff receive payments weekly or monthly, and failure to pay can result in workers leaving the organisation promptly.
The difference between cash and profit
Cash and profit are separate financial elements, and a business can be profitable while still facing cash shortages, potentially leading to insolvency. Profit measures the surplus after deducting all expenses from revenue, whereas cash tracks the actual money available for spending.
Key differences between cash and profit
Several factors explain why cash balances and profit figures often diverge:
- Sales on credit generate profit immediately but delay cash receipt until customers pay.
- Cash from prior credit sales boosts current cash without adding to this period's profit.
- Investments by owners inject cash but do not count as profit.
- Buying fixed assets, such as machinery, reduces cash but has no direct impact on profit calculations.
- The cash position at the end of a period includes the starting balance, which profit figures do not account for.
Cash inflows, outflows and net cash flow
Cash flow tracks the movement of money in and out of a business over time. Positive cash flow ensures a company can meet its commitments, while negative flow may necessitate loans or other funding.
Cash inflows
Cash inflows refer to money entering the business. Common sources include:
- Revenue from selling goods or services.
- Loans obtained from banks or other lenders.
- Capital contributed by business owners.
- Interest earned on savings or investments.
- Proceeds from disposing of assets.
Cash outflows
Cash outflows represent money leaving the business. Typical examples are:
- Wages paid to employees.
- Purchases of materials or stock.
- Utility bills for gas, water, and electricity.
- Acquisitions of equipment or vehicles.
- Rent for premises and tax payments.
Calculating net cash flow
Where:
- Total cash inflows = All money received in a period (£)
- Total cash outflows = All money spent in a period (£)
Businesses strive for positive net cash flow, where inflows exceed outflows. Negative net cash flow indicates more money is leaving than entering, which could require external borrowing to bridge the gap.
Cash flow forecasts and their importance
A cash flow forecast is a projection of anticipated income and expenses over a forthcoming period, revealing the expected cash position at each month's end. It uses estimated figures to aid future planning and typically presents data month by month.
Formula for closing balance
Where:
- Opening balance = Cash at the start of the period (£)
- Net cash flow = Inflows minus outflows (£)
Reasons cash flow forecasts are important
Cash flow forecasts serve multiple vital purposes:
- Spotting potential shortages - They highlight periods when cash might run low, allowing time to arrange loans or overdrafts.
- Aiding funding requests - Banks and investors often demand forecasts to assess the business's financial viability.
- Enhancing planning - They support setting clear goals and refining overall business strategies.
- Tracking actual performance - Comparing forecasts against real figures reveals variances, enabling quick investigation and adjustments.
Cash flow management in large and small businesses
All businesses, irrespective of scale, must actively manage cash flow to avoid insolvency and closure. Effective management involves maintaining accurate records of transactions, preparing reliable forecasts, and implementing strong systems to collect payments from customers.
Challenges for small and large businesses
- Both small and large firms can fail due to cash shortages.
- Large companies may create difficulties for smaller suppliers by postponing payments, leveraging their greater market power.
- Small firms often find it hard to enforce timely payments from bigger clients.
- Some governments introduce rules to prevent large businesses from exploiting smaller ones through delayed payments, promoting fairer practices.