Changes in population size due to births, deaths, and migration

Demography refers to the study of population statistics, focusing on factors that influence the size and growth of a population, such as birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns. These elements have significantly shaped the UK's population dynamics since 1900.

Factors influencing population size

• Birth and death rates - Population generally grows when the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. Conversely, a population declines if death rates are higher than birth rates, or if too few children are born to replace those who pass away.
• Migration patterns - Immigration, the movement of people into a country, increases population size, while emigration, the movement of people out of a country, reduces it. These movements have played a crucial role in altering the UK's demographic landscape over the past century.

Trends in birth and fertility rates and their social impacts

Since the early 20th century, the UK has experienced a notable decline in birth and fertility rates, with significant fluctuations during specific periods. This trend has reshaped family structures and societal norms in England and Wales.

Decline in birth and fertility rates

• Historical decrease - Births in England and Wales dropped from around 1 million in 1901 to approximately 700,000 in 2014. Despite temporary spikes after the First and Second World Wars and in the 1960s—known as baby booms—the overall trend has been downward since the mid-1970s.
• Total fertility rate (TFR) - This measures the average number of children a woman would have if she followed current fertility rates throughout her life. The TFR in 2014 was 1.83 children per woman, a decrease from higher rates in earlier decades, with peaks during baby boom periods.
• Completed family size (CFS) - This represents the average number of children for women born in a specific year. For instance, women born in 1941 had a CFS of 2.34, while those born in 1968 had a CFS of 1.92.

Changing patterns in childbearing

• Smaller families - The average number of dependent children per family fell from 2.0 in 1971 to 1.7 in 2011.
• Delayed parenthood - Women are having children later in life, with the average age at the birth of the first child rising from 24 in 1971 to 28 in 2013.
• Increase in childlessness - A growing proportion of women remain childless, with 9% of women born in 1945 childless by age 45, compared to 20% of those born in 1966.

Social factors behind changing trends

• Availability of contraception - Easier access to contraception has allowed individuals greater control over family planning.
• Changing roles of women - Shifts in societal expectations have seen more women prioritising education and careers, often delaying or forgoing motherhood.
• Economic considerations - The high cost and time commitment of raising children lead many couples to opt for smaller families or to focus resources on other priorities.
• Individualism - A post-modern emphasis on personal choice and lifestyle has influenced decisions to have fewer children or none at all.

Shifts in mortality rates and the ageing population

Mortality rates in the UK have seen a dramatic decline since 1900, contributing to longer life expectancy and an ageing population. This shift has far-reaching implications for society.

Improvements in mortality rates

• Infant and childhood mortality - In 1901, infant mortality rates (IMR), defined as deaths of children aged 0 to 1 per 1000 live births, were alarmingly high at 16.6% for boys and 13.6% for girls in England and Wales. By recent years, this has dropped to less than 0.5%, reflecting significant health advancements.
• Adult mortality - While the absolute number of deaths annually has remained relatively stable since 1901, the proportion of deaths has decreased due to population growth over the 20th century.

Contributing factors:

• Medical progress, including vaccines, antibiotics, blood transfusions, and improved maternal care, has reduced mortality since the mid-20th century.
• The establishment of the National Health Service (NHS) in 1948 provided free healthcare access.
• Government regulations on food and water quality, better public health awareness, and improved nutrition have played key roles, though some critics note that certain diseases increased despite better diets.

Rise of an ageing population

Due to falling mortality rates, life expectancy has risen significantly, with projections suggesting that 1 in 3 babies born in 2013 could live to 100. This means that the proportion of individuals over 65 in the UK is growing, expected to reach nearly 25% by 2041. The number of people over 85 has doubled since 1985.

Consequences of an ageing population:

• Below replacement level fertility - A TFR of 2.1 is needed to maintain population levels. With current rates below this threshold since the late 1970s, fewer young people are born, contributing to an ageing demographic.
• Shrinking younger population - The proportion of younger individuals is declining relative to older age groups, especially as baby boomers from post-war and 1960s periods enter older age brackets.
• Beanpole families - This demographic shift has led to the emergence of beanpole families, characterised by multiple generations but fewer members in each, due to longer lifespans and smaller family sizes.

Effects of an ageing population on society and care

An ageing population brings challenges and changes to societal structures, particularly in terms of care responsibilities and resource allocation.

Burden of care and dependency ratio

• Shifting care needs - Society bears the burden of care for vulnerable groups like children and older people. In an ageing population, this responsibility increasingly focuses on the elderly, straining resources.
• Dependency ratio - This is the ratio of non-working age individuals to those of working age who support them through taxes and other means. An ageing population increases this ratio, placing greater pressure on the working population to meet the needs of older individuals.
• Economic implications - Hirsch (2005) suggests solutions like working into later years or increasing taxes during working life to fund health and social care costs. He also highlights housing competition between single pensioners and young individuals, driving up prices, often to the disadvantage of younger people with fewer assets.

Changes in care provision

• Care in the community - Following the Griffiths Report in the late 1980s, care for older people shifted from NHS services post-hospitalisation to local council social services, moving away from institutionalisation towards home-based care.
• Benefits and challenges of home care - Delivering minor health and social care at home enhances independence and comfort for older individuals who prefer not to move into care facilities. However, funding cuts to local councils since the 2008 financial crisis have reduced service availability, impacting care quality.

Poverty and discrimination in old age

• Ageism - Discrimination based on age, known as ageism, often increases in ageing societies, undervaluing older people's contributions and viewing their needs as burdens.
• Poverty links to social class and gender:
  • Peter Townsend (1979) found a higher proportion of older people in poverty compared to younger groups, attributing this to an underclass of pensioners reliant on limited income sources post-employment.
  • Those with lower-status jobs during their working lives, often linked to social class, are more prone to poverty in old age due to lack of savings or private pensions.
  • Pilcher (1995) notes that gender also plays a role, as women often have smaller pensions due to career breaks for childcare.

Impact of net migration on population structure and diversity

Migration has profoundly influenced the UK's demographic composition since the Second World War, affecting population age structures and cultural diversity.

Trends in net migration

• Post-war increase - Net migration, calculated as the number of immigrants minus emigrants, peaked at 330,000 in the year 2014-15. The foreign-born population in England and Wales almost doubled from 1991 to 2011.
• Historical context - Before the Second World War, the foreign-born population was minimal. Post-war labour shortages led to government encouragement of Polish soldiers to settle in the UK. The British Nationality Act of 1948 facilitated immigration from Commonwealth countries, sparking significant inflows.
• Shifts over decades - Until the 1980s, emigration to countries like Australia and the USA balanced immigration. However, mass immigration in the 1990s surpassed emigration, driving up net migration. Conflicts in regions like South Africa and Afghanistan in the late 1990s increased asylum applications, peaking at just over 84,000 in 2002.
• EU expansion and Brexit - Between 2004 and 2007, EU expansion and free movement policies boosted migration from new EU member states. Since the UK's exit from the EU in 2020, EU immigration has declined, but non-EU immigration has risen sharply.

Effects on population and family structures

• Counteracting low fertility - The impact of low fertility rates on population size is offset by high net migration, which helps sustain population growth.
• Younger demographic influence - Migrants are typically of working age, lowering the average age of the population and reducing the dependency ratio by increasing the proportion of people who can support dependents.
• Fertility among migrants - Mothers born outside the UK have higher fertility rates than UK-born mothers, temporarily increasing the dependency ratio with more children, though this effect diminishes as these children reach working age.
• Multi-family households - Rising net migration has contributed to an increase in multi-family households, reflecting diverse living arrangements.

Globalisation and cultural diversity

• Impact of globalisation - As nations become more interconnected, international migration has grown, driven by varied motivations. Over half of UK visas granted between June 2014 and June 2015 were for education, while over a quarter were for economic reasons.
• Ethnic and cultural diversity - Since the 1990s, British society has become more ethnically diverse, with migrants introducing varied cultures and religions, fostering a multicultural environment.
• Transnational identities - Eriksen (2007) suggests that in a globalised world, migrants often develop transnational identities, feeling connected to multiple countries rather than fully assimilating into one. This raises political debates about whether to encourage assimilation or embrace multiculturalism.