Key facts and dates

The late 1970s and early 1980s marked a significant shift in international relations as détente between the United States and the Soviet Union collapsed, ushering in a period of renewed confrontation known as the Second Cold War. This timeline captures the pivotal events and decisions that intensified tensions during this era.

Timeline of key events

• Late 1970s – Soviet military buildup continues despite SALT agreements, raising Western concerns.
• 1979 – Carter and Brezhnev sign SALT II treaty, but Senate opposition and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan prevent ratification.
• 1979 – NATO adopts "dual-track" decision to deploy missiles in Europe while offering negotiations.
• 1980 – Carter Doctrine declares Persian Gulf vital to U.S. interests, threatening military action against Soviet expansion.
• 1980 – Ronald Reagan elected U.S. President on a platform of confronting Soviet expansionism.
• 1983 – Reagan labels the Soviet Union an "Evil Empire", intensifying ideological rivalry.

Causes of the deterioration of détente in the late 1970s

During the late 1970s, the period of détente, which had been characterised by reduced tensions and cooperation between the United States and the Soviet Union, began to unravel. Several key factors contributed to this breakdown, driven by actions and perceptions on both sides that eroded trust and mutual understanding.

Factors leading to the collapse of détente

• Soviet military buildup - Despite agreements like the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT), the Soviet Union continued to enhance its military capabilities, raising alarms in the West about their commitment to reducing arms.
• Western perceptions of Soviet adventurism - The Soviet Union's involvement in conflicts in the Third World, such as in Africa and the Middle East, was seen by Western powers as aggressive expansionism, undermining the spirit of détente.
• Deployment of SS-20 missiles - The Soviet deployment of SS-20 intermediate-range ballistic missiles targeting Western Europe heightened fears of a direct threat, as these weapons could strike with little warning.
• One-sided benefits of détente - There was a growing sense in the West that détente disproportionately favoured the Soviets, who appeared to gain strategic advantages while the U.S. and its allies made more concessions.

Collapse of the SALT II treaty and its implications

The SALT II treaty was intended to build on earlier arms control agreements, aiming to limit the nuclear arsenals of both superpowers. However, its failure to be ratified marked a significant turning point in Cold War relations, symbolising the broader collapse of détente.

Events surrounding the SALT II failure

• Signing of the treaty in 1979 - U.S. President Jimmy Carter and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev signed the SALT II treaty, setting limits on strategic nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
• Senate opposition in the U.S. - Strong resistance in the U.S. Senate, driven by concerns over Soviet compliance and perceived weaknesses in the treaty, made ratification unlikely even before other events intervened.
• Soviet invasion of Afghanistan - The Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan in late 1979 delivered the final blow, as it was seen as a direct violation of détente principles, effectively killing any chance of Senate approval.
• Informal observance - Despite the lack of formal ratification, both sides initially adhered to the treaty's terms informally, though this did little to halt the escalating tensions.

Western responses to renewed Soviet threats

In response to the perceived Soviet aggression and the breakdown of détente, Western nations, led by the United States and NATO, adopted a series of measures to counterbalance Soviet actions. These responses combined military and diplomatic strategies to assert Western resolve.

Key Western strategies and policies

• NATO's "dual-track" decision (1979) - NATO agreed to deploy Pershing II and cruise missiles in Western Europe to counter Soviet SS-20 missiles, while simultaneously offering negotiations to reduce arms on both sides.
• Carter Doctrine (1980) - President Carter declared the Persian Gulf a vital U.S. interest, warning that any Soviet attempt to gain control of the region would be met with military force, reflecting a tougher stance on Soviet expansion.
• Increased defence spending - The U.S. and its allies ramped up military budgets to strengthen their forces, aiming to match or exceed Soviet capabilities and demonstrate a commitment to deterrence.

Impact of new leadership and ideological hardening

The early 1980s saw the emergence of new leaders in the West who adopted a more confrontational approach towards the Soviet Union. This shift was accompanied by a renewed emphasis on ideological differences, further deepening the divide between the two blocs.

Influence of new personalities

• Ronald Reagan's election (1980) - Elected U.S. President on a platform of confronting Soviet expansionism, Reagan advocated for a significant military buildup and a firm anti-communist stance.
• Margaret Thatcher in Britain - As Prime Minister, Thatcher supported strong anti-Soviet policies, aligning closely with Reagan to bolster Western unity against the Eastern Bloc.
• Pope John Paul II's role in Poland - The Pope's influence, particularly in his native Poland, inspired anti-communist sentiment and supported movements like Solidarity, challenging Soviet dominance in Eastern Europe.

Ideological shift and rhetoric

• Reagan's "Evil Empire" speech (1983) - Reagan famously described the Soviet Union as an "Evil Empire", reinforcing the moral and ideological conflict between capitalism and communism.
• Rejection of moral equivalence - Western leaders dismissed the idea that the two systems were morally comparable, emphasising the superiority of democratic values over Soviet communism.
• Support for anti-communist movements - The U.S. and its allies increased backing for anti-communist groups worldwide, including in Central America, Africa, and Afghanistan, as part of a broader strategy to undermine Soviet influence.

Soviet perspectives and the risk of escalation

While the West viewed Soviet actions as aggressive, the Soviet Union had its own concerns and justifications for its policies. This mutual suspicion and military buildup on both sides heightened the risk of confrontation, bringing the world closer to the brink of nuclear conflict.

Soviet views on the renewed tensions

• Feeling threatened by American rearmament - The Soviet leadership perceived the U.S. military buildup and missile deployments in Europe as a direct threat to their security.
• Belief that the West abandoned détente - From the Soviet perspective, Western actions, such as the failure to ratify SALT II and increased defence spending, signalled a rejection of cooperative principles.
• Military buildup despite economic strain - In response, the Soviets continued to enhance their own military capabilities, even though their economy was under significant pressure, exacerbating internal challenges.

Dangers of escalation

• Renewed nuclear war risk - The deployment of new weapons systems in Europe, combined with the collapse of arms control talks, increased the likelihood of a nuclear confrontation.
• Massive weapons deployments - Both sides stationed advanced missile systems in strategic locations, reducing reaction times and raising the stakes of any potential conflict.
• Collapse of arms control negotiations - With formal talks stalled, there were few mechanisms left to de-escalate tensions or limit the arms race, intensifying global fears of conflict.

Debate over the inevitability and consequences of the Second Cold War

Historians and policymakers continue to debate whether the Second Cold War was an unavoidable outcome of Soviet actions or a result of Western policy choices. This discussion also considers the broader implications of this period of heightened confrontation.

Key points in the debate

• Was confrontation inevitable? - Some argue that Soviet actions, such as the invasion of Afghanistan and continued military buildup, left the West with little choice but to respond decisively, while others suggest that more diplomatic Western policies might have preserved elements of détente.
• Necessity vs. danger of confrontation - There is a divide on whether the hardline stance of leaders like Reagan and Thatcher was necessary to pressure the Soviet Union into eventual collapse, or whether these policies were unnecessarily provocative, risking nuclear war.
• Long-term outcomes - The Second Cold War ultimately contributed to the weakening of the Soviet system through economic strain and ideological challenges, but it also created a period of intense global anxiety over the possibility of catastrophic conflict.